A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
